Roundup #1
Energy Shocks, Vietnam's leadership consolidation, The State of SEA.
Monday, April 13th 2026 Welcome to the inagural roundup — I’ll put together a weekly list of links and quick commentary on the top stories in Southeast Asian economics, politics, and the occasional cultural link. The plan is to focus on economics, something most commentary on the region elides, and how it connects to other issues in Southeast Asia.
Energy Shocks & Southeast Asia
The world faces energy shocks due to the war in (with?) Iran. While the conflict is currently at a tense ceasefire, energy markets and net importing nations are still feeling the strain. Spot prices and futures are still up, countries are scrambling to replace lost imports and the Strait of Hormuz is, for all intents and purposes, still closed. Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable as 80 percent of petroleum and oil products destined for Asia travel through the Strait with up to 85% destined for Southeast Asia following that route. The region doesn’t just face price shocks, but real shortages of fuel.
Thailand’s government plans to offer support through direct payments and so called soft-loans, or loans below market-rate with generally favorable terms. Full story with Reuters →
Over at the FT, the Philippines is feeling the pressure as a wholly dependent oil importer. Will it drive them closer to China despite past confrontations over territorial waters? The war in the Middle East continues to have knock-on effects of the nth order. Full story at FT.com →
Luke Hunt at The Dipolmat talks ASEAN and Global Supply Chains. Listen here →
Finally, the always great Sebastian Strangio has published commentary on a World Bank report that the region’s economic growth will slow in 2026 in part to the Iran War and those knock-on effects. Read it here →
Vietnam’s Consolidation
Tô Lâm, already considered the most powerful man in Asia’s fastest growing economy, was sworn in as President. He’s led the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) since mid-2024. The appointment merges the country’s top positions, CPV General Secretary and President. The 68-year old is scheduled to visit Bejing next week. Choice quote, from the venerable Nguyen Khac Giang,“I would not say collective leadership in Vietnam is being abolished, but it is clearly being rebalanced”. Full story at the FT → His write-up at the Fulcrum can be found here.
Khanh Vu Duc at the Asia Sentiel has some excellent commentary on his power consolidation.
Reports & Academic notes this week
ISEAS: The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report US leadership under President Trump, the Chinese aggression in South China Sea (East Sea) and global scam operations top the list of geopolitical concerns this year behind only climate change and extreme weather for Southeast Asians.
World Bank: East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2026: Industrial Policy in the Digital Age Slowing Economic Growth for the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) in 2026 and beyond?
The Week Ahead
The New York Times and FT are reporting the US-Iran peace talks fell apart without any kind of resolution. They also reported that the US will institute a naval blockade. This is going to be a depressing and wild week for energy markets. I expect the impacts in Asia will be dramatic if no new deal is reached and the ceasefire cracks or fails. Articles today on China report the world’s second largest economy is seeing polyethelene (plastics) supply chain ructions — a situation to monitor given its place as the world’s “factory floor”.
Out of Time - Quote
That’s it for this week. I leave you with a quotes from Jeff Goodwin’s excellent “No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945-1991” that may echo for some of us today.
“A measured response to the convulsion in Viet Nam could have been devised by the French; they could have created instituions granding power to indigenous citizens and permitting them opportunities for political mobilization on French terms, bue this appeared to be unncessary and the institutions seemed difficult beyond comprehension to construct. For this miscalculation France was to pay a dear price.”
John T. McAlister, Jr. (1969: 274)
“Indochina under the French was a prison, and there was nothing to but unite against the jailer.”
Ngo Van, Troksyist militant (quoted in Goldner 1997: 140)
All errors are mine and I apologize for any formatting issues. I’ll have these worked out in the coming weeks.