Roundup #3

Monday, April 27th 2026 Overview

Welcome to Week 3. Energy disruptions and fallout from the war in the Middle east continued this week. Southeast Asian farmers are facing a troubling and uncertain future and present while the tech sector worries, a major area of growth in the region, especially for Viet Nam, fears slowdown as the availability of manufacturing inputs remains uncertain. Finally, a couple of interesting reports from ISEAS on USAID’s destruction and the costs of the Thai-Cambodia border conflict.

The Strait is open. The Strait is closed. Long live the Strait

As of Friday the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — at least in any practical sense. Brent Crude is hovering around $106 and conflicting messages from US President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders has left us in a state of confusion. Talks were planned, but did not materialize as of Friday morning with more planned for the weekend. The NYTimes was reporting on the effects of the war early last week with major services cuts to flights across the region. Many countries, especially those in Southeast Asia face jet fuel import cliffs while a number of airlines (like Batik Air) are facing insolvency.

The Diplomat has reported on fuel shortages hitting Thailand especially hard. The “immediate fuel crunch” is feeding into Thailand’s already rampant cross-border fuel smuggling, in part from the Thai-Cambodia border conflict. The scale of the smuggling is massive reaching 727 million liters according to Thai Pakdee Party leader Warong Dechgitvigrom. Read the excellent overview at The Diplomat here

The Financial Times reports traders in Singapore, the world’s largest ship refueling port, are leaning on Russian oil to replace cargo lost to the disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Arrivals from Russia in April were set to hit record highs since 2016. This matches other Southeast Asian and Asian countries “increasingly turn[ing] to Russian oil.” Availability appears to have improved in later April as Russian tankers arrived. This is a regional story to watch going forward even if the Strait were to re-open tomorrow. Read more here

Fertilizer and Farmers

Reports that farmers across Southeast Asia are finding it difficult to source and afford critical inputs are starting to rattle Southeast Asia and global watchers. The South China Morning Post via NPR reports on idle fields and farmers faced with decisions on whether to plant while others are leaving crops in the ground facing rising fuel costs. Low prices on rice tonnage and high inventory are weighing on the economics of planting and supply.

Read the NPR article here Read the SCMP article here

Tech fallout

The FT reports that critical inputs flowing through the Strait of Hormuz will impact the growing market for green tech. Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of nickel, is unable to acquire enough sulphur and thus produce sulphuric acid, endangering the viability of many of its refiners. The majority of imported sulphur flowed through the Strait. It’s also used in production of phosphate fertilizer and other important green tech (and other tech) metals.Read more here

Reports & Academic notes this week

ISEAS’s Fulcrum has an excellent piece on the economic fallout from the Thai-Cambodia Conflict. Read it here

The US’s closure of USAID has knock-on effects now just fully coming into view. A worthwhile read on what ISEAS’s Hoang Thi Ha and Eugene R.L. Tan call “the hollowing out of America’s human and intellectual connections to Southeast Asia” outlines the intellectual consequences of those cuts. Read it here

The Week Ahead

More uncertainty will shroud ASEAN around energy markets while I’ll have more on China and the US and their respective influence in the region. Jet fuel will start to be a real concern and I imagine more reporting will reflect that as decreased shipments begin to impact the sector both region-wide and internationally.

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All errors are mine and I apologize for any formatting issues. I’ll have these worked out in the coming weeks.